The Role of Wrong Assumptions in Big Policy-Making Mistakes

Document Type : Research Article

Author

• Ali Haji Gholam Saryazdi

System Dynamics Research Group, Imam Javad University College, Yazd, Iran.

10.22067/jstinp.2022.76249.1007

Abstract

Assumptions play a big role in decision-making and policy-making. In other words, assumptions are one of the important components of the mental model that affects the identification, prioritization, and definition of the problem by affecting the type and amount of information received from the problem and also by influencing the model of analysis, analysis, solution identification, and prioritization. They influence decisions and ultimately affect the world around us (Real World). Thus, identifying key assumptions that have led to important decisions helps managers, decision-makers, and policy-makers to make better decisions and policies and correct mistakes. Therefore, this article aims to explain the role of assumptions in decision-making and policy-making by providing several examples of wrong assumptions (misconceptions) that have led to major policy mistakes. These examples are gasoline pricing, steel pricing, and companies' support of science and technology parks. In this article, by examining the numerical database, the policy mistakes were explained, and the governing structure was constructed using the opinion of experts. In the end, a suitable solution to prevent wrong assumptions is presented. The results of the article showed that assumptions by changing the mental model of individuals lead to wrong policies and decisions in various fields. Therefore, to make the right policy and decision, it is necessary to identify and review the assumptions through various means, such as using the opinions of a group of experts and correcting the assumptions.

Keywords

• Assumptions
• Decision-Making
• Policy making
• System Thinking

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