Examining the Emigration of Elites from Iran: A System Dynamics Approach

Document Type : Research Article

Authors

• Nasser Safaie
• Farhad Chakmehchi Khiavi
• Mohammad Sadegh Shahsavar

Department of Industrial Engineering, K. N. Toosi University of Technology, Tehran, Iran.

10.22067/jstinp.2023.85830.1083

Abstract

Nowadays, countries are leading in growth and development, with their managers having a systematic approach and perspective toward external phenomena. In the past, the slow pace of changes and transformations in societies made it easier to analyze current and future conditions. However, in today's world, complex phenomena are non-linear and multidimensional. The migration of skilled and educated human resources from developing to developed countries is also considered one of these phenomena, which is influenced by numerous variables and factors that change and evolve over different periods. The system dynamics approach is a precise modeling method that allows us to simulate complex and dynamic systems computationally, both qualitatively and quantitatively. By utilizing the obtained results, more effective policies and organizations can be designed. This paper discusses the migration of elites from Iran to developed countries from a dynamic systems perspective. The problem is modeled and simulated using the software "Vensim". Important variables in elite migration are identified and adjusted. The model's outputs indicate the positive impact of the presence of elites in a country on its level of economic development.

Keywords

• Elite migration
• System dynamics
• Socio-economic variables
• Computer simulation
• Scenario analysis

---

References

Beigian, S., Safaie, N. and Sepehri, M.M., 2022. Hospital cost reduction modeling thorough scenario planning in system dynamics. International Journal of Hospital Research, 11(3). https://doi.org/ LBL_COMMENTED_AT/ijhr.2022.319064.1503

Beine, M., Docquier, F. and Rapoport, H., 2001. Brain drain and economic growth: theory and evidence. Journal of development economics, 64(1), pp.275-289. ; https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3878(00)00133-4

Chalabi, M., & Abbasi, R.,2005. Comparative analysis of brain drains at micro and macro levels. Journal of humanities, 41-42, pp.13-32, [In Persian]. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/428775/fa.

Derakhshan Shahrabad, H., Saeedi, M., Yazdanparast, A. and Ghazanfarpour, M., 2023. Emigration Pattern among Medical and Non-medical Iranian Elite and Its Associated Factors: A Review of Literature. Medical Education Bulletin, 4(2), pp.687-701. https://doi.org/10.22034/MEB.2023.403848.1077.

Forrester, J. W., Ratings, T., Gaddis, P. O., Galbraith, J., & Stillwagon, G. B., 1961. Industrial Dynamics. The MIT press & John Wiley & sons Inc.

Ghorbanian, Z., & Salehi, M.,2021. Presenting a model for examining the phenomenon of elite flight with systems dynamics approach. 3rd National Conference of Systems Dynamics Society [In Persian].

Ha, W., Yi, J. and Zhang, J., 2016. Brain drain, brain gain, and economic growth in China. China Economic Review, 38, pp.322-337. ; https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2015.02.005.

Hajigholamsaryazdi, A., Gholami, S., and Pilehvar-e-mohammadabadi, E., 2017. Analyzing the dynamics of elite migration using associative modeling. The second international industrial management conference [In Persian].

Langroodi, R.R.P. and Amiri, M., 2016. A system dynamics modeling approach for a multi-level, multi-product, multi-region supply chain under demand uncertainty. Expert Systems with Applications, 51, pp.231-244. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2015.12.043.

Meadows, D.H., 2008. Thinking in systems: A primer. chelsea green publishing.

Moftakhari, A., Jafari, M., Abounouri, A., & Nademi, Y., 2023. Investigating the effect of social capital on brain drain in the member countries of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Journal of economic studies and policies. 10(19), pp.153-174. [In Persian]; https://doi.org/10.22096/esp.2023.523940.1484.

Mousavirad, S., & Ghodsian, H., 2015. Analysis of elite immigration and the effect of restrictive policies using system dynamics. Journal of strategic management research. 21(59), pp. 37-62. [In Persian].

Mozafari, M., 2023. Science in Iran: a victim of political turmoil. The Lancet, 401(10390), pp.1768-1769. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(23)00926-1.

Sadeghi, R. and Seyyed Hosseini, S.M., 2019. Tendency of Youth toward International Migration and Its Determinants in Tehran. Strategic Studies on Youth and Sports, 18(43), pp.9-26.

Safaie, N., Kaveie, M., Mardanian, S., Mohammadi, M., Abdol Mohamadi, R. and Nasri, S.A., 2022. Investigation of factors affecting COVID-19 and sixth wave management using a system dynamics approach. Journal of Healthcare Engineering, 2022. https://doi.org/10.1155/2022/4079685.

Shahabadi, A., & Pouran, R., 2022. The effect of economic complexity and globalization on elite migration in selected member countries of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation. Journal of modern economy and business. 17(1), pp.109-133. [In Persian].

Shahsawaripour, N., Ghafouri, S., & Parizad, B., 2019. Analyzing and introducing practical solutions to the phenomenon of brain drain using system dynamics. 17th International Industrial Engineering Conference [In Persian].

Sterman, J., 2002. System Dynamics: systems thinking and modeling for a complex world. Irwin/McGraw-Hill, Boston.

Vakili, S. and Mobini, M., 2023. An Overview of Brain Drain, Causes, and Policy Issues in Iran. Medical Education Bulletin, 4(2), pp.715-726. https://doi.org/10.22034/MEB.2023.404566.1078.

Vedadhir, A., & Eshraghi, S., 2019. Tendency to migrate in Iran's medical community. Journal of research and planning in higher education. 25(2), pp.23-42. [In Persian].

Zuckerman, H., 1977. Scientific elite: Nobel laureates in the United States. Free Press, New York.