System Dynamics Modeling of Preventive Care Strategies for Addressing Obesity and Healthcare Expenditures in the United States

Articles in Press

Document Type : Research Article

Authors

• Md Doulotuzzaman Xames
• Rocio Ulunque Antezana

Grado Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Virginia Tech

10.22067/jstinp.2025.92817.1149

Abstract

This study aims to explore the impact of preventive care strategies on obesity prevalence and associated healthcare expenditures in the United States using system dynamics modeling. Obesity remains a major public health challenge, contributing an estimated $173 billion annually to U.S. healthcare costs. From 2000 to 2018, adult obesity prevalence increased by nearly 10%, exacerbating the strain on healthcare systems. This study employs system dynamics to understand the complex interplay of factors influencing obesity, including dietary habits, physical activity, and genetic predispositions. Causal loop diagrams were developed through a rapid literature review to map feedback loops and causal relationships within the obesity system. These diagrams identified key intervention points for preventive care strategies aimed at reducing obesity-related healthcare costs. Preliminary findings suggest that preventive care strategies can significantly mitigate obesity prevalence and reduce associated healthcare expenditures. By targeting critical feedback loops, such as those influencing dietary behavior and physical activity, the proposed model highlights potential pathways for effective population-level interventions. The iterative development of causal loop diagrams revealed the importance of early intervention and sustained behavioral change in curbing obesity trends. System dynamics modeling provides a valuable framework for understanding the complexities of obesity and its economic impact. Insights from this study offer policymakers guidance on designing and implementing preventive care strategies to lower obesity rates and alleviate the financial burden on healthcare systems. Future research will involve quantitative simulations incorporating expert opinions and stakeholder input to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of proposed interventions.

Keywords

• System dynamics
• Obesity
• Healthcare cost
• Health policy
• Preventive care
• Causal loop diagram

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