Systems Thinking in Investigating the Youth Unemployment Problem in Iran

Articles in Press

Document Type : Research Article

Authors

• Ramezan khosravi ¹
• Akram Esmaeili Avval ²

¹ Department of Engineering, Industrial Engineering group, Gonabad, Iran.

² Faculty of Engineering, University of Gonabad, Gonabad, Iran

10.22067/jstinp.2025.94882.1170

Abstract

Youth unemployment in Iran is a long-standing and complex issue. It results from the interaction of structural barriers, behavioral patterns, and economic shocks, which reinforce each other over time. This study employs a qualitative system dynamics (SD) model to examine how these mechanisms sustain high unemployment among young people. The model is presented through a Causal Loop Diagram (CLD). It draws on evidence from research, policy reports, and theory to map key feedback loops in the labor market. The analysis identifies several reinforcing loops. These include educational inflation, skill mismatch, informal employment traps, and economic contraction due to sanctions. Each loop intensifies unemployment. In contrast, balancing loops, such as public-sector hiring and vocational training, offer only short-term relief. These feedbacks explain why isolated policies often fail to produce lasting change. The findings highlight key leverage points. These include better alignment between education and employment, stronger labor-demand policies, and improved labor-market information systems. While qualitative, the model offers a solid foundation for future simulations and for designing feedback-aware strategies to reduce youth unemployment in Iran and similar contexts.

Keywords

• Youth Unemployment
• System Dynamics
• Causal Loop Diagram
• Labor Market Policy
• Skill Mismatch

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