Design and Validation of a System Dynamics Model for Attracting and Leveraging Industrial Elites in Iran’s Industrial Production System

Articles in Press

Document Type : Research Article

Authors

Ali Shoobi ¹

rouhollah bagheri ²

Jalal Haghighatmonfared ³

¹ Departmant management Islamic Azad University Central Tehran Branch: Tehran Iran

² Department of Management, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran

³ Department of Management, Central Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran

10.22067/jstinp.2026.96998.1194

Abstract

This paper design and validates a system dynamics model to explain the mechanisms of attracting, retaining, and leveraging industrial elites within Iran’s industrial production system. Given the strategic role of industrial elites in developing a knowledge-based economy and improving industrial competitiveness, a range of policies and institutions have been established in recent years; however, a meaningful gap remains between the emerging capacity of industrial elites and their realized impact on industrial production. Based on the literature on human capital, elite migration, national innovation systems, and science and technology policy (as well as relevant upstream policy documents), key variables and feedback relationships across higher education, elite support, industrial R&D units, industrial knowledge-based companies, the elite labor market, and the policy/institutional environment were identified and formalized as causal-loop and stock–flow structures and implemented in Vensim. Using official time-series data for 2012–2021 (1391–1400), the model was calibrated and evaluated through structural tests (e.g., boundary adequacy and dimensional consistency) and behavioral tests (historical behavior reproduction, extreme-condition, and sensitivity tests). The results indicate that the proposed model reproduces the historical trends of key variables with acceptable accuracy and exhibits robust behavior under reasonable parameter changes. The model can be used as a policy laboratory for ex ante evaluation of interventions aimed at increasing industrial absorption capacity, strengthening industrial R&D, and reducing persistent elite outflows.

Keywords

System dynamics

industrial elites

industrial R&

D

industrial knowledge-based companies

elite migration

Iran’s industrial production system

---