Exploring Sustainable Development Pathways in the Cellulose Industry: A System Dynamics Perspective

Articles in Press

Document Type : Research Article

Authors

Salman Akhoundzadeh

Mansour Soufi

Mehdi Fadaei

Department of Industrial Management, Ra.C., Islamic Azad University, Rasht, Iran

10.22067/jstinp.2026.95306.1177

Abstract

Cellulose industry, as one of the key sectors in the global economy and production, faces major challenges in environmental, social, and economic sustainability. The main purpose of this study is to develop a model for improving sustainability in the cellulose industry. Methodologically, the research is descriptive–survey in nature and applied in purpose. To implement the study, relevant factors were first identified through the literature review, and then validated by 13 experts. System dynamics modelling was employed to simulate and analyse the dynamic behaviour of the system over time. After validating the stock-and-flow model through structural and behavioural tests, four potential scenarios were designed to assess their impact on sustainability. The simulation results over a 60-month horizon examined the effects of four scenarios— aggressive investment, baseline scenario, gradual, moderate improvements; and operational optimization and cost reduction indicate that while an aggressive investment strategy yields the highest financial returns and environmental gains in the long term, a strategy based on operational optimization is most effective at boosting employee productivity and reducing waste. Ultimately, no single scenario is definitively optimal; the choice of a strategic path depends on a firm’s specific priorities. This model provides valuable insights for managers to evaluate the long-term impacts of their decisions on the three pillars of sustainability.

Keywords

Sustainability

Cellulose Industry

System Dynamics

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