Document Type : Research Article
Authors
1
Department of Project and Construction Management, Apadana Institute of Higher Education, Shiraz, Iran
2
Department of Management, Apadana Higher Educational Institute, Shiraz, Iran
3
Department of Management, Apadana Institute of Higher Education, Shiraz, Iran
4
Department of Construction Engineering and Management, Islamic Azad University, Taft Branch, Taft, Iran
5
Department of Construction Engineering and Management, Apadana Institute of Higher Education, Shiraz, Iran
Abstract
Smart buildings, integrating advanced digital technologies and IoT, are essential for sustainable urban development. However, selecting appropriate development strategies in highly volatile emerging economies remains a complex challenge due to deep macro-environmental uncertainties. Traditional deterministic decision-making models often fail to account for unpredictable political and economic shocks. To bridge this gap, this study proposes a scenario-based framework utilizing Weighted Robustness Analysis integrated with the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and PESTEL factors. By evaluating six strategic alternatives across 16 plausible future scenarios, this research identifies strategies that remain viable under extreme uncertainty rather than merely optimal under stable conditions. Based on the judgments of a high-level expert panel in Iran’s construction sector, the results demonstrate that "Cultivating new customers and regional markets" is the most robust and resilient strategy, effectively buffering against localized economic shocks through market diversification. Conversely, "Expanding the existing domestic customer network" emerged as highly vulnerable to macro-environmental fluctuations. Validated through a weighted sensitivity analysis, these findings provide a highly pragmatic, context-specific decision-support framework for policymakers, urban planners, and construction stakeholders navigating severe geopolitical and economic volatility.
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