Document Type : Research Article
Authors
1
Associate Professor, College of Farabi, University of Tehran, Iran
2
M.Sc. Student of Industrial Management, Noor Tooba Electronic Higher Education Institute, Iran
10.22067/jstinp.2026.97538.1197
Abstract
Energy transition in oil-dependent countries is often framed as a techno-economic optimization challenge, yet in practice it unfolds as a contested socio-technical governance process shaped by power, legitimacy, and boundary choices. This study examines decision-making for energy transition in Iran’s oil industry by integrating Critical Systems Heuristics (CSH) with DEMATEL. First, CSH-based interviews with 15 Iranian experts were used to surface boundary judgments regarding system purpose, beneficiaries, success criteria, decision authority, resource control, recognized knowledge, expertise, and legitimacy. The analysis revealed systematic “is/ought” gaps: transition is currently treated as a revenue- and continuity-preserving adjustment, while broader aims such as resilience, diversification, justice, and intergenerational responsibility remain marginal. In the second stage, CSH-derived challenges were translated into 12 DEMATEL factors and evaluated to map causal interdependencies and identify leverage points. Results indicate that a hydrocarbon- and state-centric worldview, centralized decision-making, and concentrated control over finance, technology, and data constitute the strongest causal drivers, while weak representation, limited contestability, one-dimensional performance metrics, and compliance-based governance are predominantly effect factors. The integrated approach links normative diagnosis to structural prioritization, offering actionable guidance for sequencing reforms. The findings suggest that durable transition pathways require interventions in deep governance and epistemic structures rather than isolated technical instruments.
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